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• #How to determine total points for mnf game plus

Use your research on the teams to make your best guess as to who will win and compare that to the sportsbook’s lines to try and find an edge. This bet would be considered a value bet because the sportsbook’s odds for the coin to land on heads are greater than the true odds for the coin to land on heads.Īpplying this isn’t so black and white when it comes to betting on different sports teams, because there is no way to calculate the exact odds of a team winning like we can with a coin toss. We know that with a coin toss, there is a 50% chance it will land on heads and a 50% chance it will land on tails. Let’s look at a wager on a coin toss for an example. Use your own research to calculate the team’s chances of winning and compare that to what the sportsbook thinks the team’s chances of winning are. Betting applicationsĬalculating implied probability can be useful when trying to find value in a market. In more of a mismatch between two teams, you could see the favorite with over 80% implied probability with an underdog at under a 20% chance of winning.

#How to determine total points for mnf game plus

You would stand to win $100 plus your original stake back if you wagered $100 on the Colts. The difference in implied probability between the favorite and the underdog is just under 5%. You can tell by the implied probability that sportsbooks think this is going to be a close game between the two teams. Implied probability = 100 / (positive American odds + 100) * 100įor that same game, the implied probability of a Colts win is:ġ00/(100 + 100) * 100 → 100/200 * 100= 50% Converting positive American odds (underdogs) This is why you have to wager more money upfront on heavy favorites when placing a bet. The higher the implied probability, the more sportsbooks believe that bet will cash. You would need to put up $120 down on the Cardinals to win $100 plus your original stake back. The Cardinals are not considered heavy favorites heading into the matchup. This means that sportsbooks feel the Cardinals have just under a 55% chance of beating the Colts in their upcoming game. Implied probability = negative American odds/(negative American odds + 100) * 100įor the above odds, the implied probability of a Cardinals win is:ġ20/(120 + 100)*100 → 120/220 * 100 = 54.54%

TeamĬonverting negative American odds (favorites) Let’s use these DraftKings Sportsbook odds for a 2021 regular-season NFL game as an example. It does take some math…but we promise, the formulas make it pretty easy to plug and chug. While explaining odds in terms of how much money you stand to win or need to wager can be helpful, viewing odds as implied probabilities is a much more user-friendly experience.

Converting American odds to implied probability So you would win $300 plus your original stake back if you put $100 down at +300 odds. The odds for an underdog indicate what you stand to win if you wager $100 on that bet. A wager on a +300 underdog has less chance of hitting than one on a +120 underdog from the sportsbook’s perspective. The higher number indicates the bigger underdog. Underdogsįor underdogs, it’s exactly the opposite. So that -300 favorite means you would need to put down $300 on that bet to win $100 plus your original stake back. The odds listed for a favorite indicate the amount of money you need to wager to win $100. For example, a -300 favorite has a higher likelihood of winning than a -150 favorite, according to the sportsbook.

When looking at American betting odds, you will see a (-) sign listed next to the betting favorite on the moneyline and a (+) sign next to the underdog.Īmerican odds are also centered around a baseline of $100, although you do not need to wager $100.įor favorites, the higher the absolute value of the number, the better chance of that bet hitting. It is a useful tool for both new and veteran bettors alike. What exactly do -150 odds mean when it’s time to place a wager?īeing able to take American betting odds and convert them into implied probability is a key factor to assessing value in a particular betting market. When it comes to sports betting, American odds can be confusing to a first-time bettor.